Polymarket Odds Show 64.5% Chance of 25 BPS Fed Hike

Polymarket traders currently price a 25 basis point Fed rate increase after the October 2026 meeting at 64.5 percent. The contract carries $2.97 million in lifetime volume and $357,954 in the past 24 hours.

The same platform lists a separate contract on no change in rates at 34.5 percent probability. That market has drawn $3.26 million in volume overall and $431,532 in the most recent day of trading.

Two additional contracts complete the set of outcomes traders are pricing. A 50 basis point or larger increase sits at just 1.1 percent, while a 50 basis point or larger decrease is at 0.3 percent.

Contract Details

• 25 BPS increase: 64.5 percent Yes, $2.97M volume, $732,335 liquidity
• No change: 34.5 percent Yes, $3.26M volume, $617,351 liquidity
• 50+ BPS increase: 1.1 percent Yes, $1.86M volume
• 50+ BPS decrease: 0.3 percent Yes, $1.62M volume

Liquidity across the four contracts ranges from $358,000 to $732,000, giving traders room to adjust positions without extreme slippage.

How These Markets Work

Each contract resolves to Yes or No based on the Federal Open Market Committee's actual decision. Traders buy or sell shares at prices that reflect their view of the outcome, and the final price at expiration equals $1 if correct and $0 if incorrect.

The October 2026 meeting sits more than two years out, so volume remains modest compared with nearer-term political contracts. Still, the combined $9.71 million across these four markets shows sustained interest in how policy rates will move by then.